Much speculation has been expressed across the hospitality industry about what hotel recovery will look like after COVID-19. Rightfully so, as we saw the steepest decline in travel history happen swiftly within days of outbreaks in major cities and regions across the globe.

Many hotels are still shuttered, awaiting word from governmental agencies on when they can safely reopen. Other hotels, that have either remained open or have reopened, are not yet seeing the amount of business they need to sustain long term. With occupancy rates at 36.6% as of the end of May according to STR data, what will hotel recovery look like for hotels as the world begins to travel again?

Onyx has used its internal analytics, OnyxComp, to model realized stay data numbers showing increased business in areas of relaxed COVID-19 restrictions combined with lower rates of infection.

China-Specific Hotel Recovery

Below is a graph showing that as COVID-19 cases dipped below 2,500 in the third week of February in China, realized stay volumes progressively increased through the end of April.

Southeast Asia Hotel Recovery

In comparison, the rest of East Asia’s COVID-19 cases, which were reported slightly later, continued to hold steady through the end of April. Therefore, stay volumes have not yet begun to bounce back, as displayed in the graph below.

What Can Hotels Expect?

Business and leisure travel have long been expected to be the first travel segment to bounce back, and avoidance of COVID-19 “hot spots” is still a major priority for most businesses and travelers. Hotels can expect that major cities still battling infection rates will see a slower rise in confirmed stays. This will most likely be representative of the entire state where these cities reside, as major cities see the bulk of business and leisure travel.

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